Reasons for increase in Afghan fatalities?

Discussion in 'The Corps' started by TurboThreaders, Jun 26, 2008.

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  1. .....................

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    Last edited: May 19, 2014
  2. sgtpepperband

    sgtpepperband War Hero Moderator Book Reviewer

    Perhaps a change in the aggressive tactics by the new Unit Commanders has resulted in these casualties?
     
  3. I deplore the deaths and injuries and my view has always been not to be there but:
    maybe the more the USA and we piss off Iran the more expertise and gear they send over to there as they do in Iraq.
    The Affies are hardened,callous and expert mountain fighters but I never thought they had the expertise to defeat modern jamming methods.
    Someone else is helping them and the finger points to Iran I reckon.
     
  4. Where do you start on this one? I don't think what we are seeing is a casualty spike; more of a trend.

    1. AQ topped Ms Bhutto which indirectly led to Pervy Musharraf being gelded. The Pak Generals are now running the show and they are not inclined to bend over for the USA in the way that Pervy was wont to do. The ISS is training Talib in safe areas and there is an inexhaustible supply of screaming Jihadis heading into Afghanistan.

    2. Mohamed Karzai is not running a country; he is simply the Mayor of Kabul [and only parts of that fair city]. So no indigenous political centre or control.

    3. The Taliban are winning hearts and minds in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

    4. The Taliban are determined to stop further NATO expansion into Helmand, Kandahar & Oruzgan.

    5. Add up 1 /2 /3 /4 and you have large formation contacts that are killing many Brits [please don't anyone say that we are killing more of them because that is totally irrelevant].

    6. The Taliban are on a learning curve; adapting tactics and understanding that continued enemy casualties affect foreign public opinion and undermine foreign civilian morale.

    7. As part of the learning curve the Talib are also refining and adapting suicide bombings.

    8. Bush and Broone are threatening Iran at the top end of the Gulf and the Iranians are getting their licks in at the other end of their country [ my enemy's enemy is my friend].

    Seems like someone somewhere didn't study Afghan history very well. :thumright:

    RM
     
  5. Brilliant summary. Cheers. :thanks:
     
  6. I expect the Tali terrs also appreciate the free Battle Damage Assessments provided by our free democracies.
     
  7. I believe the Flipflops have changed their tactics as well - a move away from the more direct assaults and fire fights that they generally didn't come off too well from to the use of more 'remote' methods such as those we have seen used to quite good effect in Iraq.

    It is only an opinion but I suspect that they are also benefiting from help from some neighbours with the technology and doctrine to support the change in tactics - again as witnessed in Iraq.

    I would assume that we will change tactics to match the new threat and we will see a bit of a drop in casualties until they change theirs again. Thus the cat and mouse games of fighting an insurgency have every been.
     
  8. Russian weapons,
    pakistani fighters,
    afghani suicide bombers,
    iranian technology,
    chechnyan snipers.....
    anyone else gonna jump on the bandwagon?

    I'm just waiting for the first ISAF plane to get taken out.
     
  9. Sadly, I must concur that this is likely to be at least part of the change - there is a fine line between farmer and fighter, and the difference is the Local National consent that you win or lose. This place is rapidly becoming the new NI with cash playing not a small role in the equation and plenty of sponsorship from outside countries.

    Win the hearts and minds and accept that you will be a long time doing it.

    "You cannot shoot your way out of an insurgency"
     
  10. wave_dodger

    wave_dodger War Hero Book Reviewer

    Hate to disagree with Bergan but your number 5 is actually quite critical. Because we are killing hundreds of the the lower tier Taliban, the peasant given $10 to pick up an old AK (or even worse), is now ever more reluctant to join in. So the Taliban have had to become ever more adaptive - hence your 6 and 7.

    I don't think you can discount 5 so glibly - NATO, in whatever, guise, is killing literally hundreds per week. That has has a corrosive effect on the villager who actually didn't want to fight anyway, growing poppies was ok, but this killing malarky....
     
  11. wave_dodger

    wave_dodger War Hero Book Reviewer

    It definately has had a large effect - the drive North creating the security zones forces the Taliban outside of areas they previously controlled and enjoyed exercising authority and recruiting...now they have had to change
     
  12. well as time moves on technologies become more advanced, maybe this last few months things have developed?! maybe they have been watching our techniques and then worked other plans out to have an effective attack, im sure if we did not have so many human rights, rules of engagement we might be a lot better in surviving just like WW2 and many other battles we succeeded in. Hopefully being pure british we will never fail.
     
  13. As Calgacus said "Auferre, trucidare, rapere, falsis nominibus imperium; atque, ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant".

    It doesn't matter that we can kill the Taleb in numbers because they will learn, adapt and continue. In the 1970's the IRA tried to fight the British Army, it got stomped. It learned, adapted and continued and eventually won. The same is happening in Iraq and the same will happen in Afghanistan.

    Attached is a depressing article on the subject.

    http://www.alternet.org/waroniraq/90149/?ses=8e2882448c75683f547cf77a2a4489c5

    RM
     
  14. wave_dodger

    wave_dodger War Hero Book Reviewer

    [quote="Bergen]As Calgacus said "Auferre, trucidare, rapere, falsis nominibus imperium; atque, ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant".[/quote] a tad harsh comparing ISAF to the Roman Empire!

    [quote="Bergen]It doesn't matter that we can kill the Taleb in numbers because they will learn, adapt and continue. In the 1970's the IRA tried to fight the British Army, it got stomped. It learned, adapted and continued and eventually won. The same is happening in Iraq and the same will happen in Afghanistan.[/quote]

    But isn't this the point (of the topic), they are adapting because they are losing numbers, because ISAF has made headway in many areas (and not in many others), thats why there is an upsurge, just as in Baghdad after the last series of US surges the Iraqi insurgents responded with a wave of suicide bombers.
     
  15. a tad harsh comparing ISAF to the Roman Empire!

    [quote="Bergen]It doesn't matter that we can kill the Taleb in numbers because they will learn, adapt and continue. In the 1970's the IRA tried to fight the British Army, it got stomped. It learned, adapted and continued and eventually won. The same is happening in Iraq and the same will happen in Afghanistan.[/quote]

    But isn't this the point (of the topic), they are adapting because they are losing numbers, because ISAF has made headway in many areas (and not in many others), thats why there is an upsurge, just as in Baghdad after the last series of US surges the Iraqi insurgents responded with a wave of suicide bombers.[/quote]

    WD - I'm not arguing with your logic which is spot on. The point that I'm trying to make is that any indigenous uprising against a first world power; be it the Caledonians against the Romans or the Taliban against the USA will keep mutating until it finds a formula that is successful.

    In the case of the IRA they reasoned that Belfast and Londonderry were a long way from the Brit's breakfast table and that moving their war to London and Birmingham would really grab attention over the toast and marmite; and it sure as sh*t did.

    Afghanistan was sidelined in Chimpy McFucknugget's rush to attack Iraq and we are paying the price of that neglect. There will be some ebb and flow on the ground - nothing too serious as long as the West retain air dominance... but if one of the spectators [Ruski, Chinese or Iranian - take your pick] decides that the Taleb could benefit from a modern MANPAD system then all bets are off. The Seppos thought that they were being smart in arming the Afghans against the Soviets and proclaiming that it was pay-back for Vietnam. They had better watch out for Putin deciding that re-arming and assisting the Taleb would be poetic justice for what the USA did to them and also give them a poke in the eye for their present interference in the former satellites of the USSR. Pay-back is a bitch :thumright:

    RM
     
  16. Yeah, the 'Charlie Wilson's War' remake by Vlad or the Tehranians will not be a Tom Hanks vehicle in 20 years time methinks.
     
  17. wave_dodger

    wave_dodger War Hero Book Reviewer

    Fair one, I'm not so sure we're geared up for a large scale protracted asymmetric war - people just won't accept the casualties in the longterm.

    Equally you're right, once it moves to Europe on a larger scale, that would provoke thought (from the politicians), spurred on by a public who wonder why we are in Aghan.

    It can't be too far from the time when the Taleb get a MANPAD, they're in Iraq so its just a matter of time and money.
     
  18. Whats a MANPAD?
     
  19. Man Portable Air Defense System

    Shoulder fired ground to air missiles. The standard US model is the Stinger which is a bit long in the tooth now. The Iranians got their hands on Stingers soon after Charlie Wilson sent them to Afghanistan by buying 2 launchers and 6 missiles from the Wily Muj.

    The Iranians [who are no dummies] improved the US version and have mass-produced their own.

    The West is surviving in Afganistan with an acceptable level of casualties purely because they have air dominance. The Soviets were the same. Lose control of the skies and you lose the war. The Soviets lost because the US gave the Muj Stingers. If the Taleb get latest generation MANPADS all bets will be off.


    RM
     
  20. so.... just to be the Rubber Nodite warrior... Its all way more complicated than i thought(further up the chain it is anyway), i think i just learnt more in the last ten mins than i have in the last couple years listening to the the news,

    but for the lads on the ground its that complicated right? just a job to do and have to get it done? or am i off the mark? ( i have mates going in sept, there first deployment since the RFCC)
     

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