Fingers crossed it's the latter. The current wait for ET(ME) from test to entry is around 16 months I think, so it sounds feasible.
It would of course be foolish in the extreme to suggest mistakes aren't made by AFCOs. When one of 'my' candidates gets allocated an entry date, I ring them up & later send the 'offer of service' letter to make sure, but some may do it differently.
Some of the younger applicants can sometimes be a nightmare to get hold of as they change mobile numbers frequently, neglecting to keep us updated. Sometimes people complete the Offer of Service "Accept/Decline" chit, not fully reading the letter & then return the entire letter & the completed form, not realising they have an entry date. I've even had a guy attend an pre-entry brief, join Raleigh & fail to 'sign-on', claiming he thought he was only attending an acquaint course.
Don't saw his bed in half for the bonfire, change the locks, move house or rent-out his bedroom just yet.