Pax Russica

Today's Torygraph (6 Feb 08) provides a report taken from the IISS's Military Balance 2008 which suggests Russia is abandoning her previous treaty commitments (treaties are part of international law, and so, supposedly, cannot be unilaterally abandoned) threatening, amongst other things, Western security. The article posits that the 1987 INF Treaty could go the same way as the 1992 CFE Treaty.

Of course it remains open to speculation whether this will have any effect upon government investment in our defence.
Yes, all very scary- although, whilst they do build some good kit, they have to sell most of it and a lot of what they have in their armoury is mediocre. Having said that, if they do arm up properly again they really will be something to worry about.

On your second point, I'm not sure how elastic your definition of "open to speculation is." If you mean "(sadly) stark staring bleeding obvious"- in as much as the government will continue to close its eyes to reality and cary on with the lamentable pattern of trying to do more and more with less and less, then I agree with you.

Government investment in our defence is fine so long as you don't try and follow your own strategic defence review recommendations at the same time as fighting on two fronts- and fund them both out of a defence budget which hasn't been increased to allow for this.

Mr Brown may well be able to claim that he is spending more on defence in as far as the raw number of pounds being spent has gone up. However, as this is bearly keeping pace with inflation, the best that can be said is that in real terms we are standing still if not starting to fall back.

My recommendation is to pick either Russian or Chinese and get hold of some Linguaphone tapes- we're all going to need them pretty soon at this rate....
As the article points out, with points East spending jumps in the past few years, I dont think its Ivanovich we need worry about. I daresay like all good civilian contracts in Russia, they want to re-negotiate the terms based on their perception of improved negotiating strength, because they want something else out of the deal, and I suspect its not entirely unconnected to GW's deals with certain Eastern bloc countries and missile shields or sensor arrays...

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