OaksandTea
I know that you say that you are getting fit and studying so that you can apply, but my advice to you would be to apply now unless there is some reason which I haven't been able to discern as to why you should wait.
Something which is really difficult to predict at the moment is how pipelines are likely to be, for Pilot for instance; I'm not even sure that the people planning intakes to BRNC could really tell you; I suspect that the real impact as far as intakes and how this impacts on further pipelines won't be really possible to assess until the autumn.
I do know that there are candidates who were ready to join in May but who couldn't because of the pandemic. Those candidates will be lined up for the autumn and I suspect that the intake is already full. At the moment, BRNC is still considering how to create the intakes it needs if it is to supply exactly the right number of people for the jobs available.
I would have thought that, if there is a problem with the Pilot/Observer pipeline being jampacked, this will be being addressed at the moment and efforts being made to calibrate the intakes so as not to make things worse.
Something which does strike me is that there is a real possibility that there will be a rise in applications in August when the A Levels come out and I would advise anyone thinking of applying for Pilot to consider biting the bullet and getting on with it now, rather than waiting.
I wouldn't advise fretting about things in the future over which you don't actually have any control; focus on the things which are more immediate and about which you can do something. Rest assured that, if there is a problem with Pilot pipelines, it is being addressed by people who know about these things and who are paid to deal with them.
I don't think that it is a bad thing to think of Warfare Officer as your alternative, it's logical and sensible. A good many Pilot applicants don't make the cut for various reasons, so it's good to have a back up. There will be a moment for addressing this around the time of your AIB, but that is some time in the future.
Something I would advise is not to let the idea of having to wait for the job you want most to be a deterrent. There was a moment, about 7 years ago, if I remember correctly, when all FAA waiting times went haywire and I remember clearly being told the wait for AETs to join was 36 months, 3 years and I was pleased when I heard from some of the applicants who had waited for 3 years that they were about to join; others had fallen by the wayside.
I think that it's in your interests at the moment to appreciate just how difficult things are going to be in terms of calculating intakes and moving people through pipelines. The last few months have been extraordinary and I think that it's beneficial to consider the impact this will have on people joining - the ones who flourish are going to be the ones who realise that there will be moments when things are a bit out of kilter and who accept that and take it in their stride. It's going to be a bit unpredictable at times, but the ability to take on board the unpredictable and roll with it will be a good asset to have as an Officer; dealing with the unexpected in the Navy is definitely an asset, as you will find out.
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