EU, NO-DEAL BREXIT BACKSTOP...and all that

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Polto

War Hero
I see the grand rum ration love-in is continuing. If the various newspapers are anything to go by, it would seem that the PM has been on a bit of roll the last couple of days and has made some progress with both Macron and Merkel. I wonder what the rest of the EU politicos think of this seemingly softening up? Every little bit is progress it would seem - hopefully Teashop will be able to come off the boil dropping from apoplectic rage to just about seething anger after what Boris said yesterday about a border. Teashop is almost a political island...which I suppose has some irony about it. Just my opinion, it's a bit of a rollercoaster the whole thing. Challenging times.
 

Sumo

War Hero
I see the grand rum ration love-in is continuing. If the various newspapers are anything to go by, it would seem that the PM has been on a bit of roll the last couple of days and has made some progress with both Macron and Merkel. I wonder what the rest of the EU politicos think of this seemingly softening up? Every little bit is progress it would seem - hopefully Teashop will be able to come off the boil dropping from apoplectic rage to just about seething anger after what Boris said yesterday about a border. Teashop is almost a political island...which I suppose has some irony about it. Just my opinion, it's a bit of a rollercoaster the whole thing. Challenging times.
Is a rollacoaster a special Iron?
 

Levers_Aligned

War Hero
Moderator
Plus to trade with the EU we will have to comply with all their H&S and Reach rules, the same as all other countries have to.
So, what's the problem, exactly? Are these 'regulations', or 'rules', by the way?

While you're here, let me just give you some light relief on what I have been asking you of the last few months.

I know you like your 'research papers' and all that, but a small browse of the internet brings a heck of a lot of valid data straight to your fingertips, as I am sure you well know.

This doozie:

CLICK HERE

doesn't half lift the lid on how much the delta actually is between in and out for households in the UK when it comes to leaving the EU, set against no deal and it's alternatives. Now I know it come from them pesky people - the government - and I know you and Slim think they are all a bunch of remoaning motherfuckers, but you have to admit, they have a great deal more access to data than you'll ever have and if they were telling whoppers, people like you will quickly scrutinise the data and rebut their claims. Won't you? I know it was written in 2016 (so you did have a bit of a warning, if you chose to heed it) , but I don't see much which alters the findings in the other direction, apart from daft memes which on scrutiny, are wholly inaccurate.

The summary (for those who can't be arsed reading it) is:

"This document assesses continued UK membership of the EU against the three existing alternative models:
  • membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), like Norway
  • a negotiated bilateral agreement, such as that between the EU and Switzerland, Turkey or Canada
  • World Trade Organisation (WTO) membership without any form of specific agreement with the EU, like Russia or Brazil
The Treasury’s analysis shows that the UK would be permanently poorer if it left the EU and adopted any of these models. Productivity and GDP per person would be lower in all these alternative scenarios, as the costs would substantially outweigh any potential benefit of leaving the EU. The analysis finds that the annual loss of GDP per household under the three alternatives after 15 years would be:
  • £2,600 in the case of EEA membership
  • £4,300 in the case of a negotiated bilateral agreement
  • £5,200 in the case of WTO membership
The negative impact on GDP would also result in substantially weaker tax receipts, significantly outweighing any potential gain from reduced financial contributions to the EU. After 15 years, even with savings from reduced contributions to the EU, receipts would be £20 billion a year lower in the central estimate of the EEA, £36 billion a year lower for the negotiated bilateral agreement and £45 billion a year lower for the WTO alternative."

Note the last one. No Deal (and WTO) leaves each household £400 per month worse off. So I have given you what I have been asking for for all these months. Just take a moment to allow that to sink in. That's not just scaleable either. Each household, including ones considerably poorer than yours, takes a kick in the potatoes of four hundred bucks. I doubt it will affect the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg, mind. But I personally know one (or twenty) households for whom that will be ruinous. Lets not even consider the impact it will have on real areas of hardship and poverty. And you yourself stand to lose between £1500-£2700. Happy times, eh? Quite a price to pay to stop gypsies, Big Issue sellers and dirty Muslims swarming across our beloved shores, wanting houses, schools and the NHS and thieving our hard-earned cash.

So, unless you have some or other study which blows that out of the water and shows we'll all be better off, any affirmation that you voted to leave based on detailed consideration and future benefit and growth is simply huge, hairy, swinging bollocks. And here's the killer. You damned well know it.

You, and Slim, voted leave because you don't like foreigners. Didn't you?

levers
 
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slim

War Hero
Sorry but I can't resist responding to this.

You want the EU to reform. What is it that you want it to become? Do you want a single market so that we can all trade on the same basis with agreed standards of things like animal welfare, produce hygiene, permitted ingredients, etc.

Do you want a customs union so that we can trade with other EU countries without tariffs? The sort of structure than allows companies like Honda, Nissan, Airbus, etc to function with production units spread across Europe..

I suspect that you may want a simple return to the sort of common market we had before Mrs Thatcher signed the Maastricht treaty. If so, I can see your point but cannot see how you get from there to applauding a hard Brexit. The elements which made the old EC work are precisely those which were ruled out by the 'red lines' of Mrs May and the ERG.

So, if you are not simply angry and wanting to vent. What is it that you actually want?

Get your facts right!
Prime Minister John Major fought for the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty. Margaret Thatcher actively opposed the Maastricht Treaty. She declared in a speech in the House of Lords that she "could never have signed that Treaty".
 

slim

War Hero
Levers I have never used the type of language that you are accusing me of useing.
So I bow to your superior intellect and ask for your advce,
please inform me and the rest of the Xenophobic racist leavers why we should stay in the corrupt organisation that you love so much.
What have we to gain by staying in?
What are the bad points of remaining?

I want facts not projections which is what you have given us so far.
 

Levers_Aligned

War Hero
Moderator
Levers I have never used the type of language that you are accusing me of useing.
Yes. Yes you have. I have cut and pasted your direct quoted comments. Do you work for Donald Trump?

So I bow to your superior intellect and ask for your advce,
please inform me and the rest of the Xenophobic racist leavers why we should stay in the corrupt organisation that you love so much.
What have we to gain by staying in?
What are the bad points of remaining?

I want facts not projections which is what you have given us so far.
As with Sumo, it may do you some good to read (or have someone read and explain to you, drawing stuff with crayons) the contents of the document made available prior to the referendum. If you have read it, considered it's contents, done some counter-analysis and peer reviewed your findings and discover them erroneous, then come on back and tell us. Here's the link:

CLICK HERE

I promise the link isn't to a Hairy Bears website. The future of the country and the re-education of thick, xenophobic bigots is far too important a mission for me.

How's the Love thy Neighbour boxset, anyway?

levers
 

Exprop

Lantern Swinger
Get your facts right!
Prime Minister John Major fought for the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty. Margaret Thatcher actively opposed the Maastricht Treaty. She declared in a speech in the House of Lords that she "could never have signed that Treaty".
You are correct and I apologise although it makes no difference to the sense of my post. I am still interested in what it is that you are after.
 

Levers_Aligned

War Hero
Moderator
Get your facts right!
Prime Minister John Major fought for the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty. Margaret Thatcher actively opposed the Maastricht Treaty. She declared in a speech in the House of Lords that she "could never have signed that Treaty".
This, from a person who completely fucked up an Orwellian reference, and made himself look a right old feed of arse doing so.

levers
 

slim

War Hero
Back in your box Levers, you are bringing feck all to the post except insults andaccusations.
If you cannot do better than you are currently doing then you are fighting a lost cause.
Give me proof of what you state not predictions.
Treasury predictions have proved to be extremely inacurate in the pst.
However nobody can state what will happen when we leave as no country has managed to do so yet.
Reminds me of Hotel California.
Have not watched the box set yet as my oppo Elroy has it on replay.
 

Levers_Aligned

War Hero
Moderator
Back in your box Levers, you are bringing feck all to the post except insults andaccusations.
If you cannot do better than you are currently doing then you are fighting a lost cause.
I don't have to 'get back in my box' and 'do better than that'. You have said all of this, Not me. Everything is on record, and there online, for all to see. You're a bigot, and you're ignorant and xenophobic. Now why not just admit it?

Give me proof of what you state not predictions.
How can you have proof? We are still in the EU, you daft arse. Those are predictions. Y'know. The same stuff you do when you budget for a holiday, buy a car, a prostitute, or possibly in your case, a slave. They are also issued by the Treasury. You saying they aren't true?

Treasury predictions have proved to be extremely inacurate in the pst.
Oh yeah. You are. Why's that then? can you rebut the figures with your own?

However nobody can state what will happen when we leave as no country has managed to do so yet.
So you just arbitrarily vote to leave without any forethought of economic consequence? What planet do you live on?

Reminds me of Hotel California.
Is it the 'Just can't kill the beast' line? Or is it the 'voices calling from far away' line? Do the voices sound like Nigel Farage or Stephen Yaxley-Lennon at all? Or is it Jack Smethurst or Jim Davidson?

Have not watched the box set yet as my oppo Elroy has it on replay.
'I'm not racist me. My mate Elroy says so. He's one of them darkies, so that makes it right.'

Yeah. Course you're not. You can joke about it all you want.

levers
 

Sumo

War Hero
@Levers_Aligned

CLICK HERE

have read previously but always prefer a balanced view.

This first report tries to take a balanced review of a plethora of studies, which show GDP from -20% to 7% a large variance, it also state almost all reviews take a pessimists view.

This also points out that a government think tank predicted an instant recession if we voted to leave in 2016, this did not happen, as it points out predictions are only that and as good or bad as the assumptions made and data input.
A more rigorous academic review would consider all side and opinions.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/Economic%20impact%20of%20Brexit%20summary.pdf

2 other reviews on a more optimistic view
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit06.pdf

https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/From-Project-Fear-to-Project-Prosperity-Full-Report-1.pdf

Who is right and who is wrong, as you state these expert have access to data we do not all are experts in these area

Well do levers almost a good debate stance, shame you had to revert to form and mention
“You, and Slim, voted leave because you don't like foreigners. Didn't you?”????
 

SONAR-BENDER

War Hero
Signing off now, as going to the airport! Have a nice Bank Holiday.


Levers - spend some time with your family this weekend, I say again, Life's too short!
 
If Europe allows it... ;)
I would probably say not.

Macron talks tough about not giving in to the UK and basically saying get out. However, he will be after some sweetener from the EU for not vetoing any further extension.

The likelihood is another GE with battle lines firmly drawn between leave and remain (Tory v Lib Dem) and the fence sitters of the Labour party.
 

slim

War Hero
Is this thread closing on the 31st Oct? #justasking?
If we leave the EU on the 31st then i will be satisfied.
However we then have a much bigger task.
We then have to leave the Federation.
Darth Vader and his ilk will try to keep us in but with help from the Wookies and Jedi Warriors we will be successfull!
 

fishhead

War Hero
I reluctantly start another thread on this subject after all the previous acrimony but quite honestly I am baffled by the attitudes taken by all sides.
We voted to leave and Parliament duly passed a bill by a big majority which put Article 51 into UK law for us to leave on 29th March 2019. So far so clear
Bodies were sent to negotiate a post Brexit trading arrangement the upshot being Mrs May signing up for a new deal.
Parliament ,however, was unimpressed with said deal and rejected it 3 times with considerable majorities.
Parliament said they could do better, but they couldn't agree amongst themselves on which was the best course to take.
That is roughly where we are today except Mrs. May has departed with her tail between her legs and Boris has stepped into the fray.
Ireland and the EU say the unloved May deal is the only game in town when clearly it hasn't a hope of being passed ever in the UK Parliament.
Ireland say any deal must have the "backstop" which would prevent a hard border between themselves and Northern Ireland. The UK says the last thing we intend installing even in "No deal" situation is a hard border. But one thing is certain if there is a "No Deal" is that there will be a hard border administered by Ireland and the EU(I wish them good luck with that).
Each side is staring at one another with each one saying the other has to change their attitude.
The Irish PM says whatever is agreed it is only a holding pattern until a more detailed trading arrangement is hammered out so to a simpleton like me a temporary arrangement could be agreed along the lines of what already exists to give each other breathing space.
Someone is going to tell me it ain't that simple but with a little goodwill from both sides it isn't that big an ask.
I posted this nearly three weeks ago and note that the whole Brexit farce is no farther forward and no-one has suggested why everyone is so entrenched with their position. Currently the only unknown is whether Corbyn can cobble together a "Government of National Unity"/Power grab(delete as your standpoint demands). The MP's ability to agree on anything has been atrocious thus far so it's looking like a non-runner but some of them are that desperate to stop Brexit they're prepared to do anything including putting a Marxist in number ten.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea their PM(I can't spell teeshock) looks on as the days count down to the Irish having to set up border controls and his country's economy being trashed. He's on the EU roller coaster hanging on tightly hoping someone else is going to dig him out of the fertilizer. The EU already had plenty of other lame duck economies it is minding so perhaps one more won't matter but with less money going into the pot the handouts will not be so generous.
 
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