Deeps,
whilst you may intend for this thread to get bites and notwithstanding that Royal are an integral part of the Royal Navy, I think it is a very valid question. If only because so many politicians in Westminster have probably scratched their backsides and pondered the same question, without (I hope) having reached a conclusion. Some will have also thought that about the RAF too. Fewer perhaps about the Army because someone may have to protect them one day if those horrible pro-hunt and anti-ID types ever get guns, nay perhaps even sooner if London teenagers shift target.
The Americans have long been rightly suspicious of the European Security and Defence Initiative and one has to wonder at the (intentionally?)mixed messages the present UK government project to the US and Europe. In a Federal Europe (again a subject on which mixed messages are present from UK PLC) individual state armed forces will be unnecessary to represent the regions already designed. There will presumably be a requirement for federal agencies including a military element to protect European federal sovereign interests which other federal policing agencies are unable to do. A federal navy with intra-European crews is a logical arm of such a force.
Who/what poses a maritime threat to Europe?
a. Russia perhaps around North Cape and through the Bosphorous but with no carrier threat.
b. The African Littoral nations from an illegal immigration and smuggling perspective but a strong Coastguard should be able to cope.
c. An interruption to Oil supplies in the Middle East? but that is also a global issue and the US have carrier groups etc.
d. Terrorists? Unlike Admiral Mullen I think they are a policing issue.
In a Federal Europe previous national interests (EG Falklands, Tahiti etc) will be of little concern to the whole and will be negotiable with the likes of the Argentinians and Chinese.
A federal navy should be able to cope with:
1. a limited nuclear deterrent - 4 SSBNs - with European designed ICBNs.
2. Twelve to fifteen frigates (SNFL & SNFMed)
3. An MCM force to keep the ports open.
If Europe wants to be a world peacekeeper (very expensive and therefore unlikely) an expeditionary capability would be desirable but not essential, for they can sponsor the African Union and rely on the UN and US and contracted lift efforts.
So there you have it - the Uk will probably need to contribute about 2,000 recruits to the whole European Navy, or should I say the 'Eurasian Navy'? As Orwell put it " the greater the understanding the greater the delusion, the more intelligent the less sane".
ISL is absolutely correct to highlight our island status and our reliance on maritime trade. The danger is that the lunatics are already running the asylum and that the inherent instabilities in 21st century Europe will be ignored until it is too late. An island nation already bereft of a nationally owned merchant marine and effective ship building industry cannot afford to rely for its food on allies who history has shown to be fickle and unreliable. It certainly cannot afford to cease paying its maritime insurance premiums.
