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Chinese naval base Hainan

sgtpepperband

War Hero
Book Reviewer
I merely wish to hear conclusive evidence of the perceived threat before I am entirely convinced. Rumour-mongering dressed up as speculation is a dangerous policy for conflict, as we have found out before... :roll:
 

flymo

War Hero
Watch out for the Chinese presence in Africa. They too require the natural resources available there i.e. gas. As the world starts to look further afield for its resources more third world countries start to move out of the third world club into the 1st world...

I reckon there will be plenty of saber rattling will occur over Africa.
 

mikh

MIA
SBP, you seem to like to play devils advocate, but you cannot ignore the fact that the Chinese are building their ability to project their armed forces, which is an aggressive rather than defencive move. This should be making the leaders of the western world a little bit nervous at the very least, and could in part explain why the UK are building the new carriers.
 

SILVER_FOX

War Hero
If they're not to be considered a threat then explain why they would need to build up their forces to this level?

SF
 

Karma

War Hero
sgtpepperband said:
I merely wish to hear conclusive evidence of the perceived threat before I am entirely convinced. Rumour-mongering dressed up as speculation is a dangerous policy for conflict, as we have found out before... :roll:

I think if we bear in mind that threat is capability plus intent then I'd agree that there is little evidence of a credible threat to the UK; despite the build up there is not the capability to threaten the UK mainland, and no available, open source, evidence of intent. I'd also struggle to imagine how there could be an intent until they've made a lot more progress in other areas.

Notwithstanding that the increasing military capability may lead to a threat to HMs interests overseas, either directly or as a consequence of any threat to another actor.

Oil and mineral extraction sits within areas of both direct and indirect Chinese influence although they've traditionally been reluctant to interfere in the internal affairs of a state where they do have potential influence, as long as they're getting what they want.

They are jostling with India at the moment and whilst they're much less efficient the growth in their educated workforce is faster. The business side of the economy is also breaking away from the dead hand of the state, in a way that Indias did about 10-12 years ago. That said, the progress in India appears to have stalled.

When that conflict comes to a head we're not going to make any real difference, and we won't profit significantly either. I do think though that we need to be keeping a weather eye on it as whoever comes out on top will end up in a dominant position.
 

Bergen

ADC
SILVER_FOX said:
If they're not to be considered a threat then explain why they would need to build up their forces to this level?

SF

Short answer is Taiwan and US meddling there.

Slightly longer answer is:-

China is working hard to develop the capacity to blockade Taiwan. The submarine modernization program that the report details is extensive. Eight new quiet KILO-class diesels will soon be added to the four already in the arsenal; China's indigenous SONG diesel is now in serial production; and a new diesel submarine, the YUAN class, was launched last year. Chinese naval journals indicate a deep interest in blockading operations, and pay close attention to the vulnerabilities of Taiwan's island economy.

Such scenarios, of course, raise the question of what role the United States would or would not want to play in turning back Chinese aggression. Here, too, the answer is clear as day: China's military knows that it must be able to prevent, or, at least severely complicate, the American Navy's use of its aircraft carriers. To this end, as the new report spells out, China's antiship cruise missile force is growing by leaps and bounds. It has begun to field high-end, supersonic and subsonic cruise missiles on its new destroyers, attack boats, and submarines. It has even experimented with use of maneuverable, multiple-entry MRBMs and SRBMs to hit carrier battle groups. Once China solves the problem of longer-range detection and targeting, it will pose the most serious threat to American carriers in the world. And, in truth, when it comes to China's close-in waters, no serious American naval planner believes it would be safe sailing for American surface combatants, even as things stand today. As one PLA general remarked: "We have the ability to deal with an aircraft carrier that dares to get into our range of fire."

The report also details China's programs to upgrade its intercontinental ballistic missile force with new solid-fuel, road-mobile missiles and new sea-based, submarine-launched systems. The net effect will be a more survivable, more accurate, and more lethal nuclear strategic capability--aimed primarily at the United States. As General Zhu Chenghu, dean of China's National Defense University, not so subtly reminded American visitors recently: Should the United States intervene in a conflict between China and Taiwan, "the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds . . . of [their] cities will be destroyed by the Chinese" nuclear weapons.

Combine the PLA's fascination with "carrier killing," its ability to degrade severely the operational utility of U.S. air bases in Japan through missile strikes, its aggressive pursuit of space and counterspace capabilities, and its upgraded nuclear arsenal, and you have a military that believes it has or is close to having the means to make any American president think twice before going to Taiwan's rescue.

Full link from the PNAC site> http://www.newamericancentury.org/china-20050808.htm

As an aside to this discussion American planners must also realise that if they kick off on Iran then any US Carrier Group in the Persian Gulf is dead meat. For that reason a real warning sign of WWIII starting would be the evacuation of US Naval assets from these confined waters.

RM
 

SELJUK

War Hero
I'm wondering how deep the water is just outside the base entrance. Seems a bit daft to stick your assets in a tunnel (please, no snide remarks...this is serious debate here).
So long as it's possible for one of ours to be able to loiter in and around the area to pick one of theirs up on his way out to a future QRA area. The second generation are most likely just as loud as the first....the fourth and fifth will be a different prospect but....it would not be worth doing if it was easy!
We really must encourage the Russians to keep supplying them the hardware...that way it's nothing new...just more of the same!
 

promsan

Badgeman
Update:

China's bid for the moon...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/07/10/scinasa110.xml
http://www.cnsa.gov.cn/n615709/n772514/n772543/index.html
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1712812,00.html

...why should we care? Because China's also mopping up the worlds resources, and set to consolidate it's position as the world's main manufacturer with their practically limitless low-wage work-force supply.

Thing "Xing Zhan" ..."Star Wars" orbital missile defence; and what do you suppose the Taiwanese can do in the face of that?
 

Seaweed

War Hero
Book Reviewer
Happy memories of having a large Union flag painted on top of B turret in hope of not being attacked when on 'innocent passage' through the Formosa Strait. Main threat of course beign over-zealous pig-ignorant Yanks.

Hope we still have the paint ready.
 
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