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Bishop and Trident... ;)

Nutty said:
The problem I see with both the current Government thinking and the approach this Bish is taking is that both think that the UK nuclear weapons can be used in any foreseeable scenario.

Any person who is currently interested is setting a nuclear device off in the UK will do it covertly. Then who are we going to fire off our Trident Missiles at? NOBODY.

North Korea, Iran, Israel, India, Brazil, Pakistan the possible possessors of these devices are not going to launch a strike on the UK if its attributable to them. Hence a UK nuclear weapon is redundant as a deterrent in this re-aligned world and no PM will use is as a pre-emptive weapon unless the Yanks are doing the same and then of course it is superfluous to need.


But of course they are not the main reason for retaining the deterrent. Russia is recovering well from it's defeat in the cold war, and at the same time feals more vulnerable than it has done for over 50 years. Its political system is still unstable. The Russians for example are claiming that giving Poland an anti ballistic missile capability is a direct threat to Mother Russia. Are we on the brink of yet another cold war, will Russia go down the militarist route again, it is clearly dabbling in the politics of former WP countries and ex Soviet Dominions. Then of course there is China, yes going down the trade and commerce route at present but internally unstable, the growing middle class and business culture wil put tremendous pressure on their political system in the coming years. Despite the growth and improved effectiveness of ABM systems ICBMs still present the best capability for achieving a significant nuclear strike if one decides that such a capability is required


Two pointss guys.

1) look back twenty years to 1987, No one thought the cold war would end. No one would expect us to have invaded Iraq twice etc.

2) You really can't prove theories about how states and people would or wouldn't act in the absence of a certain factor in the real world because we lack a labority to simulate the answer. The world is just to complex for you to say what would have happened if the NATO countries had ditched their nuclear weapons at the end of the cold war.

The need for nuclear weapons will always be a point that is up for debate. But in my opinion in a such a complex and unpredictable world giving up the "ultimate weapon" would be ill advised.
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